Federal Reserve Tone Decoder
Systematically decodes Federal Reserve communications to quantify shifts in policy tone across inflation, labour, growth, risks, and committee dynamics using structured scoring.
- Converts qualitative policy language from statements, minutes, and speeches into structured, time-series tone scores.
- Normalises tone measures to detect directional change rather than absolute stance.
- Preserves source excerpts alongside scores to maintain interpretability and auditability.
Fed Macro Signal Synthesiser
Systematically aggregates a broad set of macroeconomic, financial, and policy signals into a coherent, cycle-aware assessment of the prevailing Federal Reserve policy environment.
- Condenses a wide universe of macro and market indicators into interpretable macro states
- Applies regime-aware weighting to reflect shifting drivers across the economic cycle
- Produces a consolidated macro backdrop used as a primary input into Fed policy decision analysis
Federal Reserve Beige Book Synthesiser
Systematically distils the Federal Reserve Beige Book executive summary to reveal national and regional economic conditions, momentum, cost pressures, and emerging signals ahead of FOMC decision points. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
- Transforms qualitative district commentary into structured national and sector-level insights
- Highlights labour, price, consumer, manufacturing, real estate, banking, and agriculture themes from the latest Beige Book report
- Maps regional dispersion and key signals that inform near-term growth, cost, and financial conditions outlooks
Federal Reserve Projections Synthesiser
Systematically analyses the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections to interpret the Committee’s evolving macroeconomic outlook and policy intent across growth, inflation, labour, and rates.
- Extracts and structures changes in Fed projections for growth, inflation, unemployment, and the policy rate
- Normalises projection shifts to highlight direction, confidence, and internal dispersion
- Translates the Fed’s stated baseline outlook into an explicit policy bias input for the Fed Watcher
Federal Reserve Watcher
Combines macro signal synthesis, policy tone decoding, projection interpretation, and qualitative Beige Book insight into an integrated probabilistic assessment of upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
- Aggregates structured signals from macro conditions, Fed communications, forecasts, and regional summaries into a unified decision engine
- Outputs probabilistic rate decision scenarios (cut/hold/hike) with underlying drivers and divergence flags
- Produces policy bias guidance aligned with observable triggers and committee behaviour for comparison with market pricing
Fed Watcher • Historic Reports
